October 2017, then Fed chair Janet Yellen talked about how wireless phone services generated likely a one-off, temporary fall in inflation. Hard to believe that this category is what seals the deal for a rate hike. A big mistake.

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    Do you remember what happened around the time when 10 yr hit 5% in the fall of 2023? GDP growth topped 5% then… and then the labor market slowed very quickly in Spring 2024. Labor…

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    Bloomberg Price Project is seeing both disinflationary and inflationary impulse in the economy. Our full CPI preview @tdurie95 @TheTerminal :

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    For tomorrow’s jobs report, just a tiny increase in labor force participation will easily push unemployment rate up.

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    The hunt for the culprit of the long term yields increase reminds me of a whodunnit storyline.

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    We estimate that the investment boom, in fact is 2x as large than measured in the national accounts. Labor productivity also likely in fact -- post eventual revisions, like in the…

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