PlanB

@100trillionUSD

All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3

  1. #1

    Most people stare at Bitcoin charts. Stock-to-Flow models scarcity. Here are the 10 highest-value S2F insights, the ones that actually change how you think about money. Thread 🧵

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
  2. #2

    BIP-110 joins BXT, BCH and BSV forks in the history of dead bitcoin ideas. Remember the BIP-110 supporters! They are now removing the evidence from their profile and timelines. Bu…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    BIP-110 joins BXT, BCH and BSV forks in the history of dead bitcoin ideas. Reme…
  3. #3

    Bitcoin closed July $62,818 200-week moving average $63k Realized price $52k (still decreasing) Monthly RSI 43 (still < 50) It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming proc…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin closed July $62,818 200-week moving average $63k Realized price $52k (s…
  4. #4

    Global bitcoin ownership estimates ~365M people, or 4-5% of world population. Market capitalization relative to gold (~$1.28T vs ~28T) also points to roughly 4-5% bitcoin adoption…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Global bitcoin ownership estimates ~365M people, or 4-5% of world population. M…
  5. #5

    2026 is the first year ever in which bitcoin difficulty dropped. What do you think it means?

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    2026 is the first year ever in which bitcoin difficulty dropped. What do you th…
  6. #6

    To be clear (if it wasn't already clear from me retweeting Adam on this topic): I am against the bip 110 filter fork. IMO filter fork proponents do not really understand: - bitcoi…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
  7. #7

    Bitcoin price is currently best estimated by bitcoin difficulty (proxy for bitocin production cost), not S2F, not "powerlaw", but dificulty.

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin price is currently best estimated by bitcoin difficulty (proxy for bito…
  8. #8

    Was July $58k the bottom of this bitcoin bear market, and does BTC go up from here? Or, is the bear market bottom yet to come, and below $58k?

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
  9. #9

    Like clockwork 🔴🔵🔴🔵🔴🔵🔴🔵🔴🔵...

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Like clockwork 🔴🔵🔴🔵🔴🔵🔴🔵🔴🔵...
  10. #10

    Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuatio…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in ev…
  11. #11

    I❤️this new chart! Bitcoin’s entire cost basis through time: • Satoshi-era coins still sitting at <$0.04 since 2009🟥 • Most 2010–2013 coins are basically gone🟦 • Capitulation a…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    I❤️this new chart! Bitcoin’s entire cost basis through time: • Satoshi-era coin…
  12. #12

    Bitcoin just touched the 200-week MA again.📉 Nobody knows if this is THE bottom... But history shows: 🔵Blue zones are the BEST buying opportunities 🔵They ALWAYS touch the 200W MA…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin just touched the 200-week MA again.📉 Nobody knows if this is THE bottom…
  13. #13

    🔵 Only ~50% of #Bitcoin is in profit right now. How long will BTC stay stuck in this blue zone? It could take a couple more months… but once this metric flips back to 🟢, a new bul…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    🔵 Only ~50% of #Bitcoin is in profit right now. How long will BTC stay stuck in…
  14. #14

    Bitcoin metrics used to cost thousands per year. BlockHorizon just opened everything up, 100% FREE data & charts: ✅ All metrics, daily updates ✅ Full historic data ✅ Unlimited…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin metrics used to cost thousands per year. BlockHorizon just opened every…
  15. #15

    I have been using data from BlockHorizon for all my analysis and charts. This used to be proprietary data. Now they’ve opened it up: free access to all metrics, charts, and downlo…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    I have been using data from BlockHorizon for all my analysis and charts. This u…
  16. #16

    Bitcoin closed June at $58,526 BELOW 200 week moving average ($62k) ABOVE realized cost price ($52k) ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price ...

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin closed June at $58,526 BELOW 200 week moving average ($62k) ABOVE reali…
  17. #17

    What will trigger bitcoin's liquidation phase to the bear market bottom next couple of months?

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
  18. #18

    Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market. Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-wee…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EV…
  19. #19

    In the next 4 years bitcoin price will:

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
  20. #20

    Not to bash ETH and correct me if I am wrong, but IMO this ETH/BTC chart is remarkable and has important insights: - ETH has done worse than bitcoin over last 10 years!! Still at…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Not to bash ETH and correct me if I am wrong, but IMO this ETH/BTC chart is rem…
  21. #21

    Reason why bitcoin had a lousy 2025 bull, decoupled from gold & equities, is in bear now ... is the complete implosion of altcoins IMO. Take ETH for example: -70% from its 202…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Reason why bitcoin had a lousy 2025 bull, decoupled from gold & equities, i…
  22. #22

    AI (gemma4:12b) understands bitcoin better than most humans, and certainly better than most traditional media😂

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    AI (gemma4:12b) understands bitcoin better than most humans, and certainly bett…
  23. #23

    Bitcoin closed May at $73,568 Market is 50/50 on if Febryary $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue. IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin closed May at $73,568 Market is 50/50 on if Febryary $60k was the botto…
  24. #24

    Was Februari $60k the bottom of this bitcoin bear market, and does BTC go up from here? Or, is the bear market bottom yet to come, and below $60k?

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
  25. #25

    📈Bitcoin April close: $76,310 BTC will go up long term (debasement + scarcity) but mixed signals short term: 2 charts left show RSI and %_BTC_in_profit🔵already at bottom levels -&…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    📈Bitcoin April close: $76,310 BTC will go up long term (debasement + scarcity)… 📈Bitcoin April close: $76,310 BTC will go up long term (debasement + scarcity)… 📈Bitcoin April close: $76,310 BTC will go up long term (debasement + scarcity)… 📈Bitcoin April close: $76,310 BTC will go up long term (debasement + scarcity)…
  26. #26

    No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs but IMO bitcoin will go lower🔵before next bull market🔴 * Note color scale is different in this chart: drawdown (BTC price /…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs but IMO bitcoin will go…
  27. #27

    Bitcoin closed March at $68,215 (RSI 44🔵) As said before, I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up toward…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin closed March at $68,215 (RSI 44🔵) As said before, I would not be surpri…
  28. #28

    Bitcoin closed February at $66,985 .. below 2021 ATH Approaching 200 week moving average ($58k black line) and realized price ($54k grey line). RSI<45 (blue).

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin closed February at $66,985 .. below 2021 ATH Approaching 200 week movin…
  29. #29

    Where will this bitcoin bear market bottom out (roughly)?

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
  30. #30

    Bitcoin closed January at $78,635 (-38% from ath) 200 Week Moving Average $58k Realized Price $55k, decreasing RSI dropped below 50, blue: official bear territory Historically BTC…

    PlanB @100trillionUSD ·
    Bitcoin closed January at $78,635 (-38% from ath) 200 Week Moving Average $58k…