$BTC's CVDD/Price Ratio is at 0.73 and climbing. At prior cycle lows it peaked near 1 (0.90/0.91/0.95 in 2015/18/22) as price meets the CVDD floor. With the current floor ~$46K, a repeat would point to a bottom near $52–59K, ~12–13 months past the Oct 2025 ATH → Q4 2026.

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1. #1

   Long liquidation risk has built up around $61K in the past weeks. If we get there, I’d expect forced selling to add momentum to the downside. #BTC

   RafaelRafael @n3ocortex · 2026-08-11

   
2. #2

   A mere 0.7% of $BTC miner revenue comes from transaction fees, and has been sub 1% for almost a year. Bitcoin was below $400 the last time fee share was this low. Security budget…

   RafaelRafael @n3ocortex · 2026-08-11

   
3. #3

   1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and demand continue to look pretty thin. A few datapoints I’m watching, and what I’d like to see turn aro…

   RafaelRafael @n3ocortex · 2026-08-07

   
4. #4

   The Great AI Migration #BTC hash rate down nearly 20% since its October peak

   RafaelRafael @n3ocortex · 2026-08-06

   
5. #5

   The #Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap Red when euphoric, blue during capitulation. Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep b…

   RafaelRafael @n3ocortex · 2026-08-03

   
6. #6

   Following the Coldcard security incident the number of addresses sending #BTC spiked on Friday to levels not seen since early 2024.

   RafaelRafael @n3ocortex · 2026-08-02

   

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