Rafael

@n3ocortex

Ex-neuroscientist | Python Maximalist | Swing HODLer | Data Scientist | Co-founder @glassnode

  1. #1

    Long liquidation risk has built up around $61K in the past weeks. If we get there, I’d expect forced selling to add momentum to the downside. #BTC

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    Long liquidation risk has built up around $61K in the past weeks. If we get the…
  2. #2

    A mere 0.7% of $BTC miner revenue comes from transaction fees, and has been sub 1% for almost a year. Bitcoin was below $400 the last time fee share was this low. Security budget…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    A mere 0.7% of $BTC miner revenue comes from transaction fees, and has been sub…
  3. #3

    1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and demand continue to look pretty thin. A few datapoints I’m watching, and what I’d like to see turn aro…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and d… 1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and d… 1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and d… 1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and d…
  4. #4

    The Great AI Migration #BTC hash rate down nearly 20% since its October peak

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    The Great AI Migration #BTC hash rate down nearly 20% since its October peak
  5. #5

    The #Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap Red when euphoric, blue during capitulation. Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep b…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    The #Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap Red when euphoric, blue during capitulation…
  6. #6

    Following the Coldcard security incident the number of addresses sending #BTC spiked on Friday to levels not seen since early 2024.

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    Following the Coldcard security incident the number of addresses sending #BTC s…
  7. #7

    The three-week recovery to $66.9K was hedge-unwinding, not sustained buying. Shorts closed, puts unwound, price pushed up mechanically. By the Jul 21 top, delta skew collapsed fro…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    The three-week recovery to $66.9K was hedge-unwinding, not sustained buying. Sh…
  8. #8

    $BTC volume sent from long-term holders in profit to exchanges has faded and sits near its lowest since early 2023. LTH profit-taking has effectively switched off.

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    $BTC volume sent from long-term holders in profit to exchanges has faded and si…
  9. #9

    What's up with runes? Roughly 2 in 3 #Bitcoin transactions have been runestones, above 70% on many days. They’re not just filling blockspace either: lately runestones accounted fo…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    What's up with runes? Roughly 2 in 3 #Bitcoin transactions have been runestones…
  10. #10

    I use Codex when I know exactly what needs to be built. Claude feels best when I need to explore and think through the problem. For pure implementation work, Codex feels like the…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
  11. #11

    Institutional demand isn’t absorbing new $BTC supply – it’s adding to the overhang. ETFs shed 71.6K BTC over the past month, DATs added just 7.5K. Adjusted for issuance, combined…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    Institutional demand isn’t absorbing new $BTC supply – it’s adding to the overh…
  12. #12

    $BTC's CVDD/Price Ratio is at 0.73 and climbing. At prior cycle lows it peaked near 1 (0.90/0.91/0.95 in 2015/18/22) as price meets the CVDD floor. With the current floor ~$46K, a…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    $BTC's CVDD/Price Ratio is at 0.73 and climbing. At prior cycle lows it peaked…
  13. #13

    1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom? $BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its ATH and down 24% in a month. Price has now worked through the upper rungs of our pricing framework,…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom? $BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its…
  14. #14

    1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom? $BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its ATH and down 24% in a month month. Price has now worked through the upper rungs of our pricing frame…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom? $BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its…
  15. #15

    #Bitcoin treasury holdings of public companies increased even throughout #BTC's recent drawdown from $125k. Not seeing much of the alleged forced selling here despite some equitie…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    #Bitcoin treasury holdings of public companies increased even throughout #BTC's…
  16. #16

    A few datapoints on the recent market move – 1/ While #Bitcoin corrected comparatively mildly, unsurprisingly, alts saw one of the sharpest daily drawdowns in years: the median re…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    A few datapoints on the recent market move – 1/ While #Bitcoin corrected compar…