The three-week recovery to $66.9K was hedge-unwinding, not sustained buying. Shorts closed, puts unwound, price pushed up mechanically. By the Jul 21 top, delta skew collapsed from ~18% to +1.5%: nobody wanted protection anymore. Textbook complacency, last seen in January. The

Rafael @n3ocortex ·
The three-week recovery to $66.9K was hedge-unwinding, not sustained buying. Shorts closed, puts un…

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  1. #1

    Long liquidation risk has built up around $61K in the past weeks. If we get there, I’d expect forced selling to add momentum to the downside. #BTC

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    Long liquidation risk has built up around $61K in the past weeks. If we get the…
  2. #2

    A mere 0.7% of $BTC miner revenue comes from transaction fees, and has been sub 1% for almost a year. Bitcoin was below $400 the last time fee share was this low. Security budget…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    A mere 0.7% of $BTC miner revenue comes from transaction fees, and has been sub…
  3. #3

    1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and demand continue to look pretty thin. A few datapoints I’m watching, and what I’d like to see turn aro…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and d… 1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and d… 1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and d… 1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here. Participation and d…
  4. #4

    The Great AI Migration #BTC hash rate down nearly 20% since its October peak

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    The Great AI Migration #BTC hash rate down nearly 20% since its October peak
  5. #5

    The #Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap Red when euphoric, blue during capitulation. Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep b…

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    The #Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap Red when euphoric, blue during capitulation…
  6. #6

    Following the Coldcard security incident the number of addresses sending #BTC spiked on Friday to levels not seen since early 2024.

    Rafael @n3ocortex ·
    Following the Coldcard security incident the number of addresses sending #BTC s…

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