Jeff Gundlach laid out the Fed's dilemma this week: Hike, and the interest bill on all that short-dated debt balloons. Cut, and inflation reignites. He’s right. But I think it’s the wrong framing, and I haven’t seen anyone unpack this properly yet in response. Here’s my take…

Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien ·
Jeff Gundlach laid out the Fed's dilemma this week: Hike, and the interest bill on all that short-d…

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  1. #1

    I posted this earlier in the week on @RealVision, but thought it was worth sharing here as well, just to give everyone something to think about. If you step back and look at the d…

    Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien ·
    I posted this earlier in the week on @RealVision, but thought it was worth shar…I posted this earlier in the week on @RealVision, but thought it was worth shar…I posted this earlier in the week on @RealVision, but thought it was worth shar…I posted this earlier in the week on @RealVision, but thought it was worth shar…
  2. #2

    This chart probably best encapsulates the story of 2025. It’s a chart I shared in several of my reports last year, and it also explains why ISM remained lower than we initially ex…

    Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien ·
    This chart probably best encapsulates the story of 2025. It’s a chart I shared…
  3. #3

    A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it. This shows the average BTC trajectory following an overs…

    Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien ·
    A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leav…
  4. #4

    I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift… This comes from Global Macro Investor (GMI) and a deep, long-running body of research developed by @RaoulGMI and myself. Ma…

    Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien ·
    I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift… This comes from Global…I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift… This comes from Global…I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift… This comes from Global…I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift… This comes from Global…
  5. #5

    Everyone is suddenly back to debating who to unfollow because this whole space has turned on itself yet again, so here is my take… I usually stop following accounts that pump out…

    Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien ·
    Everyone is suddenly back to debating who to unfollow because this whole space…Everyone is suddenly back to debating who to unfollow because this whole space…
  6. #6

    The Empire Manufacturing Survey, the first of the major US regional PMIs to report for November, surprised to the upside on Monday at 18.7 versus 5.8 expected and up from 10.7 las…

    Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien ·
    The Empire Manufacturing Survey, the first of the major US regional PMIs to rep…

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